Monday, August 25, 2008

Israel 2018 - Ten Years, Five Scenarios

Israel 2018 or 5778, what will the future of Israel look like 10 years from now? With the continuing rise of Islamist terrorism followed by pressure on Israel to continue appeasing the terrorists, it's a difficult five futures that we look toward Israel 2018.

1. Annihilation - Whether through nuclear devastation or being overrun by its enemies, Israel has ceased to exist. It has happened before in Jewish history and without vigilance it can happen again. Whatever survivors remain are in exile, the land itself is in the hands of Israel's enemies and is a disaster area in line with the worst of Afghanistan and has been annexed to one of the neighboring Arab countries.

2. Things Go On - Most countries don't come to a spectacular end, they simply continue going the way they have with things steadily getting worse and worse. In this scenario by 2018, Israel has failed to arrest its current course over the last 10 years. Its territory has shrunk, the Arab and Islamic terrorist groups operating on its soil have grown more vigorous and Israel looks more like Yugoslavia than a functioning state. Political corruption and international pressure continues to keep the Israeli government too corrupt and weak to do anything to preserve the state.

3. Medinat Yehuda - Settlers in Yehuda and the Shormon succeed in carving out a border West Bank state after they are abandoned by the government. Israel once again consists of two mutually unfriendly countries living side by side. Israel is characterized by a strong Secular-Haredi split, technocracy and political corruption. Medinat Yehuda is characterized by a Spartan dedication to the force of arms, a devotion to the agricultural values of the farmer and the rancher and a strong Religious Zionist component. Like its biblical namesake, Medinat Yehuda may be smaller but more likely to outlive Israel.

4. Japan - Innovative technological solutions allow Israel to carve out a secure state maintaining its borders and independence from Western patrons. Like Japan, Israel becomes a home not only for technological solutions, as it already is, but an active and vital exporter of technology as Israeli industrialists harness their national talent to build a powerful technocracy. Innovative solutions are used to maintain security and export technology around the world.

5. Yehu or Hizkiyahu - A leader rises capable of resisting the corruption of the system and reviving the national imperative to settle and protect the land of Israel. Gifted with leadership abilities and a certain amount of charisma, he successfully battles the dominant Labor agenda and corrupt politicians and media to clean up the country at least to some extent. He wages an aggressive war against terror, reclaiming the West Bank and Gaza, and destroying Hizbollah while dealing with the Iranian threat. He is not perfect but he is what we need in a dire hour and he manages to summon Israelis to use their talents to overcome most obstacles. The aftermath isn't perfect, but Israel has a new lease on life now.

Israel 2018, innovation or disaster, exile or triumph. Different scenarios are possible and the difference is in our hands. We can't predict what the future will bring, we can only work to make sure that it will be the best of all possible futures.


Keli Ata said...

Number 5! I have faith in the young people of Israel, particularly those in the settlements.

Ten years from now they'll be in positions to make changes for the better, to restore Israel. It's a generation that truly loves the country and Zionist ideals.

(My outlook for the United States isn't nearly as optomistic, though. I don't have much faith in American young people. In fact, they scare me.)

kahaneloyalist said...

Personally I think two and three are the most likely scenarios. Thoufh hopefully five will take place.

Sultan, I liked the article; is there any chance of you writing a expanded version looking at the potential scenarios?

Sultan Knish said...

kl, yes I might hammer out something more comprehensive, thanks for the suggestion

ka, a lot of young israelis suffer from the same problems as young americans

Maurice said...

My question is, if so many young Israelis suffer from the same lassitude and desire for easy living, plus are infected with the Leftist memes circulated in universities, how will a leader arise that they will follow? I see 3 as a more probably scenario because of that, unless something happens to shock those kids (and their leftist parents) out of their passivity and suicidal notions of making "peace" with those who will NOT make a real peace with Israel.

I have wondered how Olmert could have lasted this long, and STILL could do irreparable harm to Israel via "negotiations" (i.e. surrender tactics), yet where are the protests, where are the real leaders that could make a difference? Not the same old tired faces of Israeli politics, but those who care about Israel more than they care about their own power and image?

I will pray for 5 to happen, but it just seems quixotic right now, until or unless something changes.

Anonymous said...

Let's see. The problem with number 2 is that Israel simply isn't big enough to last ten years under such conditions. number 4 is problematic because it take serious efforts to stay ahead. Look at the cost and effort put into blocking the stupid kassem rockets. Even the Arrow isn't 100%. Number 3, spinning off into two States will not be viable and the world will not sit back for it, since you are talking about those areas demanded by the favorite Arabs.

By default that leaves you with number 1 and 5. Flipping a coin is a better guess then knowing what will be.

As I have said before, the Left -wing liberals wants, as Henry Kissinger said, a small/friendly State. He apparently said this to some Iraqi VIP back in the early 80's. Of course, this would put Israel at risk. But, wasn't that the idea?

The powerful are not prepared to tolerate a Jewish Homeland. Multiple forces wish to have the Jews be a minority in the larger Middle East or somehow disappear, without to much spilled blood.

Those opposed to a Jewish State can be found almost everywhere, including the Jewish Left.

I have called this the South Africanization of the ME. The best is that Jews will be treated like the Whites of SA. However, the more likely outcome is what occurred in Zimbabwa.

The curious thing is why the Jewish Left working so hard to emasculate their State? My take is that destroying Israel is part of their anti-Jewish death-wish.

Sultan Knish said...

Hizkiyahu wasn't perfect and made his mistakes, but he did manage a limited national revival

Zionism is about building a Jewish state before everyone repents and moshiach comes in umpty thousand years while the Jewish people are being persecuted, oppressed, massacred and assimilating and intermarrying

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