Thursday, October 25, 2007

Iran, Syria and Turkey Triangulate on the Kurds to Break America

If there was one stable leg in the tripod of Iraq's Sunni-Shia-Kurd, it was the Kurds. The Kurdish areas were relatively stable and peaceful. The Kurdish leadership was generally pro-American. Among the debris of the Shia-Sunni infighting, it was an oasis. So of course that oasis had to be brought down. And now Turkey's Islamist government is coordinating with Iran and Syria for an assault on Kurdish Iraq.

The American successes in stabilizing the Sunni areas have made Iran and the Islamist Turkish government only more determined to sow chaos and bring down Iraq and Kurds represent the perfect wedge, resented by Turkey's secularist military, they force the US to choose between allegiance to the Kurds or struggling to appease Turkey.

The supposed attacks on Turkish troops by the PKK, reminiscent of the supposed attacks by Polish troops on German soldiers that "provoked" Germany's invasion of Poland have one thing wrong with them. Iran and Syria which support Turkey's proposed invasion of Iraq, were the ones who backed the PKK's campaign of terror against Turkey in the first place, funding and arming the PKK and providing them with safe harbor within their borders.

In 2004 the PKK began a renewed wave of activity even as Iranian propaganda funneled through Turkey and through such useful Western idiots as Seymour Hersch of The New Yorker began claiming that the US was backing PKK attacks on Iran-- despite the fact that the actual attacks were taking place in Turkey. While Iran has officially cut ties with the PKK, after the capture of Abdullah Ocalan, under his brother Osman Ocalan who was based out of Iran, the PKK has increasingly become an Iranian proxy much like Hizbullah. Even as the publicity surrounding supposed PKK attacks has increased, so have the claims that the PKK is backed by the US and Israel-- despite the fact that the PKK is a Marxist organization and was part of the Soviet axis of Marxist terrorist groups diametrically opposed to the Kurdish groups Israel and the US worked with.

Having triangulated on the Kurds, the axis of Iran, Syria and Turkey are now preparing to complete the destabilization of Iraq by forcing either an American crackdown on the Kurdish areas meant to generate a Kurdish insurgency against the United States, to force America into passivity while Turkey assaults Kurdish areas discrediting America int Kurdish eyes or to draw Turkey into a war with the United States. Either way the United States is meant to lose.

That is because in the aftermath of the invasion the U.S. has repeatedly allowed itself to be put on the defensive. The U.S. has no real leverage left and while the Surge has been a success and the number of fatalities and terrorist attacks in Iraq is significantly dropping, the real enemy is now being revealed with the majority of terrorist attacks now coming from the Shiite sector. With Al Queda all but done in Iraq and the Sunni sector having realized that the U.S. is their best shot out of their mess, Iran is trying to compensate by inciting the Kurd sector and bringing Turkey into the war.

The current mess is not part of the downward trend in Iraq, it is Iran's response to an upward trend. We won a battle and now we're being hit from a new direction.


Mr Bagel said...

I couldn't agree with you more SK.
I am amazed at the lack of restraint the 'Good Allies' are showing.

For all intensive purposes it appears they are willing the PKK to react, by attacking them, and seeking them out.

I'd go one step further, I think the Turkish President is using this as an exercise in firming up his 'populist' support.

and I suspect Irans hand in the initial PKK attack was a lot more than is shown.

If the PKK attacked Turkey first and shot 13 soldiers on Turkish soil how come we've seen no footage/photos confirming this location?

Surely if it happened on Turkish soil, there would be evidence easily accessible by the Turkish media?

Here's my theory from 8 days ago
All is not what it seems...
A provocative theory

Its all just a little too convenient for Iran for my liking.

Mr Bagel

Sultan Knish said...

yes I agree, I tend to think Turkey's government wants to sideline or co opt the military and break the most powerful element of Turkey's secular forces and this is a great way to do it

turkey's military is now forced to deal with this and whether they win or lose, they're cut off from the united states and the west and if they lose humiliatingly... so much the better

Sultan Knish said...

good posts and theories by the way, I'll link to them tomorrow

Lemon said...

I think the US policy for terrorism should be one of slash and burn, that is, if they attack us we retaliate with complete and utter disproportionate response then leave quickly.
This building up of enemies is overboard. It shows the decency of Americans, but it is also not wise.We become embroiled with people who hate us and would never hesitate to say so or kill.
No one helps build America. The nations don't even bother to offer help during disaster here.
Can you tell I am sick to death of the rest of the world?

Keli Ata said...

I hear ya, Lemon. It all seems like a tremendous chess game if you ask me. We support one regime for their limited usefulness to the US only to be burned by the same country later on down the line.

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