The predictable "revelations" of the Winograd report is teaching some of the rats on board the sinking ship of the Kadima Party to do the swan dive into any political party that will take them and others to gnaw at each other hoping to salvage some sort of political party by overthrowing Olmert. Tzipi Livni, who is basically Olmert in drag but without even his cunning or limited intelligence, is first in line but there are plenty of others.
Kadima arose as a party of traitors, of the corrupt and incompetent and greedy politicians who could be induced to abandon their parties for the shiny glitter of a third way government party. Sharon and his son gathered them in and his crony Olmert tried to sit on top of them. Now Olmert's comfortable perch is gone and the gang is fragmenting again.
Kadima has been dust for a while but there is little point in rejoicing. New Kadimas will arise and the gang will find new places to migrate to. There are two kinds of politicians, those who rise to the occasion and those who greedily seize everything they can get their hands on while the country burns. The latter kind of politician will always find a home in Kadima-- whatever its name may be. Politicians without ideology, former generals without principle, rabbis without religion and immigrant activists playing their position for all it's worth.
A new Kadima has already arisen. The corrupt billionaire arms dealer on Putin's payroll, Gaydamak is plotting to run for Mayor of Yerushalayim and has crafted a new immigrant party which is polling extremely well. With members of Gaydamak's party ensconced in the Knesset-- the results will make Bishara's espionage look like child's play.
From his days associated with the Soviet embassy to his arms dealing and smuggling, Gaydamak has been an employee of the KGB. But too many people have been blinded by the glamour of his giveaways and high profile charitable donations and will vote for him. Too many Russians have been flattered by his banquets and parades. At a time when the Putin regime is openly pushing into the Middle-East, building a deep water port in Syria and supplying Iran with nuclear technology for use against Israel-- Gaydamak and any of his MK's represent a powerful fifth column in the Knesset, above and beyond the Arab one.
And Kadima is not yet gone. While Kadima may have all the popular and electoral support of the Alei Yarok party at this point-- but it's still in power and will remain in power for as long as the corrupt denizens of the current Knesset believe it is to their advantage to delay the elections. That means every single political party that does not believe it will gain seats in a new Knesset-- and believes that it will lose seats will delay the election for as long as possible.
The expansion of the Likud party in a new election endangers the seats of too many sitting parties like Shas-- which unlike the Ashkenazi Haredi parties have overall patriotic voters who are likely to back the Likud in a time of national emergency over sectarian interests.
Yisrael Beiteinu's Avigdor Lieberman is still plotting to become Prime Minister and his party will likely be held hostage to whatever insane scheme he thinks will get him there-- but he also decidedly fears Gaydamak and the body blow that will inflict on his party numbers and his best bet is to stick it out and hope to use the weakness of the ruling party to maneuver his way through a coalition higher and higher.
Overall the same basic problems I wrote about in Handicapping a No Confidence Vote remain.
Kadima still holds 29 seats. Shas holds 12 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu holds 11. Gil, which is a phony party that's a front for Kadima, holds another 9 seats. None of those parties are likely to go along with a no-confidence vote-- unless Shas\YisraelBeiteinu get a deal ahead of time with Netanyahu -- along with a rebellion in the Kadima ranks with defecting MK's voting for new elections to jump on board their new bandwagons.
Kadima is doomed and like every Israeli third party was always doomed. Sharon's leverage was enough to give it the government, but it could not long survive his death. Even with its destruction though many of the Kadima gang will move on and live on. Disbanding Kadima is not enough. Only a genuine revolution that brings the politicians who can rise to the occasion will at last bury the Kadima legacy.